Market Out Look 03-09-08

OM NAMO BHAGAVATHE SREE RAMAKRISHNAYA
Good morning. Nifty ended on 29th August 2008 at 4360.00 there by loosing 32.55 points over previous week ended on 22-8-08close.In my last write up I mentioned that “Hence it may be presumed that Nifty after reaching 4394 levels which is the middle band value, most likely to bounce back see some upside, before resuming the downward journey.”

Let us examine the movement of Nifty from 18-8-08 to 2-9-08
Date Open High Low Close

08/18/2008 4430.70 4447.40 4379.85 4393.05

08/19/2008 4393.10 4393.70 4316.55 4368.25

08/20/2008 4365.45 4434.90 4365.45 4415.75

08/21/2008 4416.20 4418.55 4271.30 4283.85

08/22/2008 4283.85 4337.00 4248.00 4327.45

08/25/2008 4317.95 4398.80 4317.95 4335.35

08/26/2008 4335.20 4345.05 4283.30 4337.50

08/27/2008 4336.85 4364.25 4282.65 4292.10

08/28/2008 4290.75 4304.50 4201.85 4214.00

08/29/2008 4230.60 4368.80 4230.60 4360.00

09/01/08 4356.10 4365.00 4281.35 4348.65

09/02/08 4358.85 4522.40 4343.10 4504.00

As is evident from the above Nifty touched 4393.05 on the very first day and went down again went up and from there went down again, witnessing sea saw movement.

Having examined the nifty movement, let us try to analyze the likely behavior of Nifty in days to come.

Let us examine the Nifty Daily Chart

The Nifty was up sharply on the last tradign day of the week. On the opening day of the week Nifty was slightly down and later witnessed good rally of around 155 points. The bar on last day is both spike and outside day. The premier stochastic indicator started turning up without entering oversold zone.

Let us examine another nifty chart

The short term moving average is oevr the long

term moving average and the averages are in divergent slopes. The long term average is sloping and the short term average is sloping down. The

Chande momentum oscilator is moving up again and did not reach the over bought area. The interesting factor is Inertia did not cross the Zero line, and turning down. The Nifty started the journey from Lower band of Bolinger Bands. The move will reach the upper band. The present value of Upper band is 4632.77.

Based on the above, it may be prsessumed that Nifty may see some down side immed -atley and later is likely to touch the upper band of Bolinger. After touching the Upper band of bolinger Nifty may continue the down journey again. The long term out look as of now turned bearish again.

Regards

Subrahmanyam

MARKET OUT LOOK 18-8-08

OM NAMO BHAGAVATHE SREE RAMAKRISHNAYA
Good morning. Nifty ended on 14th August 2008 at 4430.70, there by loosing 98.80 points over previous week close.In my last week write up I mentioned that “This indicates that there is some more steam left in Nifty, with probable upside. The likely target may be 4698.48. When Nifty reaches this area, it is advisable to adopt wait and watch approach.”.

During the week under review the Nifty posted a high of 4649.89 short of 48.59 points than the envisaged target. Let us try to examine the likely behavior of Nifty for the next week with the help of few technical aspects. Let us examine the spot nifty daily chart.

The spot nifty went down on the last two trading days and met the short term moving average. For the first time during since 21/7/08 the short term moving average started drooping. The positive aspect is, it is still above the long term moving average and the long term moving average is trending up. Now the important point is, will this level of short term moving average act as support and hold?. If this level is breached next probable support area is likely to be the long term moving average which is placed as of now at 4274.11.

The inertia is rising and about to cross the zero line. Chande momentum oscillator just neared the over bought area of 50 and started trending down.
As we would see the bolinger bands started shrinking. This indicates a trend reversal. The Nifty was moving up. And one more interesting aspect is spot nifty started it’s downward journey from the upper band. Move started at one band will terminate at other band. The move now being started at the upper band is most likely to reach the middle band. For the immediate term it will reach the middle band.

Hence it may be presumed that Nifty after reaching 4394 levels which is the middle band value, most likely to bounce back see some upside, before resuming the downward journey.

Regards
Subrahmanyam

OM NAMO BHAGAVATHE SREE RAMAKRISHNAYA
Good morning. Starting this week I wish to post my views on Nifty on weekly basis and selected stocks on daily basis, of course based on Technical Analysis. If you find any mistakes in the opinions expressed here, the sole responsibility is my ignorance, and if you find them to be interesting the total credit goes to the masters who invented these techniques and made them public for the use of investing fraternity.

The Nifty posted gains for the week ended 8th August 2008 closing at 4529.50 gaining 134.15 points over previous week close. The last two trading days of the week witnessed a downward swing posting lower highs and lower lows. Having considered the situation let us try to analyze what is in store.

The important long term moving average of Nifty is at 29 days, the simple moving average, is placed at 4198.23, and the important short term moving average of 15 days is placed at 4378.19. The short term moving average is above the long term moving average; both the moving averages are trending up. The price is turning down and heading towards the moving averages. On the last two trading days of the week, the volumes are also reduced.

The Chande Momentum Oscilator which is an excellent over bought over sold indicator is yet to enter over bought area, and inertia which depicts long term trend is moving up and yet to cross zero line. This indicates that there is some more steam left in Nifty, with probable upside. The likely target may be 4698.48. When Nifty reaches this area, it is advisable to adopt wait and watch approach.